prior probability

Such an initial assessment, based on the information available at the time, is the prior probability of success.

He can test out his predictions (prior probabilities) through an experiment.

Not taking prior probability into account partially or completely is called base rate neglect.

What is important is the relationship between the loss function and the prior probability.

Before the first inference step, is a set of initial prior probabilities.

The expert knowledge is represented by some (subjective) prior probability distribution.

The term is used to contrast the case of a weak or uniformative prior probability.

In other words, for large n, the effect of the prior probability on the posterior is negligible.

The reverse, insufficient adjustment from the prior probability is conservatism.

The approach is subjective, and this requires the assessment of prior probabilities, making it also very complex.

Generally the prior probability is estimated using the prevalence of a disease within a population or at a given testing location.

Values significantly above 1 cause a dense vector where all states will have similar prior probabilities.

There is no a priori probability about it.

We first need to assess the prior probability of guilt of the defendant.

He can then assign to these events prior probabilities, which would be in the form of numerical weights.

Thus no updating of the prior probability for "something else" can occur until it is more accurately defined.

Prior probabilities are only worth spending significant effort estimating when likely to have significant effect.

Among the criticisms of p-rep is the fact that it does not take prior probabilities into account.

The idea of incorporating prior probabilities into an analysis has been suggested as a potential source of bias.

This is the prior probability of the hypothesis that the coin is counterfeit.

(This makes sense because it indicates very high certainty that the prior probability is quite near a specific location.

But in this case we have no prior probabilities to work with (we can only guess about the long-term future of humankind).

At any one time, some of the prior probability mass will be assigned to components and some unassigned.

Estimating the prior probability for each hypothesis () is rarely feasible.

In particular, an "a priori probability" is derived purely by deductive reasoning.