Vacancies in hotels have increased, but industry analysts say that reflects new construction rather than recessionary forces.

So the normal recessionary forces are not present.

These recessionary forces then feed on themselves, dragging the economy into deeper crisis.

A cardinal uncertainty is whether the Middle East crisis will have its primary effect in strengthening recessionary or inflationary forces - or both at the same time.

Mr. Greenspan's position is that there is little the Fed can do to offset the impact of the crisis in the Persian Gulf and other recessionary forces.

The fund said that "further actions to ease monetary conditions across Europe" were "clearly necessary to stem recessionary forces and to insure recovery during 1994."

And recessionary forces alone, like the slowing of trade, will push the dollar lower.

Weaker demand despite the lack of evidence of conservation efforts sounds as if recessionary forces might be building.

If there is no war, the retreat of the oil price may help offset recessionary forces in the economy.

"Fiscal 1993 revenues and spending assumptions appear vulnerable to the same recessionary forces as those which undermined prior years' results," the New York firm said in a statement.